Current Portfolio

Lot of mixed signals –

Over last few weeks, during the prime of earnings season, the markets underwent a “so-so” corretion. Call it years of practice, ability to recognize historical behaviour or plain simple luck, I was able to move at least 40% of money into cash. This was around mid Jan, 2014.

Now everything is not Black & White. What perplexed me that some of the leading stocks from 2013 just rolled over such as MDSO, AMZN, LNKD, etc; but the ones that jumped, went straight to stratosphere. Look at KORS, AKAM, NFLX, GMCR, etc. Interestingly some of the leaders have held steady as pointed out in my twits e.g. FB, GILD, PCLN, TSLA, GOOG, etc. Lastly, there is money flowing into housing and networking stocks, so we might be in sector rotation.

So final verdict dont worry about the gurus on CNBC, market will either go sideways or up (see my next post).

My Current portfolio –

CASH – 20% +

LONG

GILD – 9%

FB – 9%

FFIV – 5%

CMG – 5%

ALXN – 6% (Recent Buy)

NFLX – 5% (Recent Buy)

UTHR – 6%

LEN – 4% (Recent Buy)

DHI – 3% (Recent Buy)

QCOM – 3%

KORS – 3% (Will add more at $91)

FLT – 4%

MDSO – 5%

UA – 3% ( WIll add more at $101)

CLR – 2% (I might close it after having it for years)

REGN – 2% (Will add more on breakout from the base)

SHORT

TWTR – 4% (Recent Buy)

I recently closed GMCR. I am contemplating buying either TSLA, PCLN, (with earnings around corner, there is risk) AKAM, BIIB, ATHN or WYNN. I am also thinking of shorting AMZN – hey it’s ripe now.

Hmm! Need to revisit IBD’s market smith and telechart to finalize the buys.

 

 

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Didn’t I tell you?

Before we move forward –

  • First thing that I did on Sunday night after posting “Deja Vu!” is – I followed my instruction.
  • I sold 60% to 100% of my holdings in most stocks. The ones left untouched were – QCOM, STX and APA.
  • I will add some APA around $85 and some QCOM around $63.9
  • I even parted ways with some of AAPL and PCLN shares. I plan on adding some of them after they correct by 5% or market corrects shows direction .
  • I sold a major portion of my most profitable stocks of the quarter such as AAPL, PCLN, SCSS, CLR, SXCI, HLF, GNC, ALLT, FFIV, F and RHT.
  • I will wait and see the action of top stocks before I make new purchases or additional purchases. Top stocks that I will be eyeing –
    • SXCI
    • AAPL
    • PCLN
    • ULTA
    • TSCO
    • SCSS
    • TPX
    • HLF
    • GNC
    • KORS
    • LNKD
    • FFIV
    • CMI
    • RHT
    • PII
    • ALXN
    • UA
    • STX
    • WDC
    • URI
    • FOSL
  • I sold all the shares of LNKD (a minor portion), WLL (took a major hit), URI and FOSL (recently opened). Last two had gone under water prior to sale.
  • I bought TLT, BLV and RWM as mentioned on Monday morning. First thing in the morning 😉

So this is where we stand today.

  • The market averages fell sharply as the Dow dropped for the fifth day in a row losing 214 points -1.65%.  The S&P 500 lost -1.71% and the NASDAQ was down -1.83%.
  • Down volume swamped up volume on the NYSE by a 13 to 1 margin and by 12 to 1 on the NASDAQ.  Declining stocks outnumbered advancing issues by a 5.6 to 1 margin on the NYSE and 4.6 to 1 on the NASDAQ.
  • Number of stocks above 50 DMA are on a decline.
  • Let’s look at the sectors
Sector name Price from 52 Week high Price from 3 month high
XLE Energy -15.21 -10.48
XLB Materials -13.95 -7.07
XLI Industrial -7.93 -6.58
XLF Financial -10.3 -6.32
IYZ Telecom -16.48 -6.05
SPY Market Index -4.22 -4.22
XLY Consumer Disc -4.12 -4.12
XLU Utilities -5.46 -4.01
XLK Technology -3.08 -3.08
XLV Health Care -2.99 -2.99
XLP Staples -2.65 -2.65

  • The market is approaching oversold territory. Below is the graph of overbought vs oversold stocks.
  • The number of stocks declining to 52 week lows have started to exceed the number of stocks new 52 week highs.
  • Let’s look at some of the declines encountered by the leading stocks.

Good Reads –

  • China surprises with trade surplus (REU)
  • German exports unexpectedly rose (BL)
  • French economy grinds to a halt (REU)
  • European investor confidence sees decline (BW)
  • Top forecasters see euro weakness (BL)
  • U.S. small business optimism falls (NFIB)
  • Weekly retail store sales up +0.5%(ICSC)
  • Skilled-worker visas see surge in demand (WSJ)
  • U.S. profit growth still expected to stall (BL)
  • Goldman’s Dominic Wilson sees more danger (BI)

Poll Time –