Portfolio as of 9/16/2012

My portfolio hasn’t changed much over last few weeks (again MUCH is a relative term;)). But first let’s pledge our allegiance to Mr. Bernanke,the great savior of the markets. Mr Bernanke came out once again to mitigate the impact of bad job numbers. I guess sooner or later Bruce Wayne will have competition.

Four weeks ago I told my colleague that I am seeing very strong buy signals. In last four years I have seen such signal fail only twice. So I went all in! WooHoo!!

I added eight new stocks and two ETFs to the portfolio in last month. I also got rid of EQIX at $199. I am thinking of adding ULTA and getting back into EQIX – Nothing as of now. I will talk about them in details in the next post.

I sold TFM due to the breakdown. I also bought and sold CRUS – bought it at $35.5 and sold it at $40.1. I am surprised by it’s move to $45 – apple effect. I also unloaded STX after a long time. I plan on hanging on with only one high beta disk drive company.

Some people might say that I own a lot of stocks but I have been tracking most of these companies for over 3 years and buy and sell signals are generated by programs. I own a lot of stocks because I dont want to overexpose myself to anyone company. The companies that I own is a mix of fast growers and slow growers (called GARP). There are handful of value stocks as well such as APA, F, HAL, etc.

Please talk to me before jumping in because we are due a 4 to 5% correction before the Santa Claus rally starts. Also being an election year, the market has to end in positive (+16% isn’t too bad either). What I mean is that we might remain flat for rest of the year. Lastly, I plan on taking some profits off the table by selling some ALXN, UA,LNKD, JPM, etc.

You can see my previous portfolio update here.

Cash=2%.

SLV=3% (Entered at $29.5)

GLD=5% (Entered at $160.5)

LNKD=5% (Entered at $101 and some at $113.5)

UTHR=5% (Entered at $53.5)

KORS=4% (Entered at $51.5)

NOV=4% (Entered at$77.5) (Price target is $100 and I plan on adding more after $86)

ARUN=4% (Entered at $19.5) (Price target is $25)

CLR=4% (Entered at$76.5 and added more at $80.2) (Price target is $95)

JPM=4% (Entered at $33.9) (Price target is $45)

DG = 5% (Enetered at $51)

WWWW=3% (Entered at $17.5 AND Will add more after $20)

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons for purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $630)

WDC = 4% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=3% (Sold some at $88) Reasons

HAL =6% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=4% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons for purchase. (I missed the doubling oppurtunity)

SCSS=4% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons for purchase. (This is sleep number mattress which I entered at $26.1)

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons for purchase. I am very disappointed with it’s price action. I don’t know what market expects of this company even after Iphone 5 release.

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red) – Worst Mistake Ever

Advertisements

Ready to Fold some – Portfolio as of 08/13/2012

I guess it’s time to take some profits my friends. Cash = 25%. Portfolio as of 08/03/2012

I still see opportunities such as LNKD@$102, MELI @$84, TDC@75.1, ROST@65, DKS@50.5, HIBB@63  and UTHR@52.1. But I would suggest that purchases of ROST, DKS and HIBB should be avoided till the earnings are out.

Earning’s gain. See CRUS below.


Earning’s Pain. See Priceline below.

If you can take a hit please feel free to buy 50% position in ROST and DKS.

JPM=3% (Entered at $33.9)

DG = 5% (Enetered at $51)

TFM=5% (Entered at $59.5)

WWWW=3% (Entered at $17.5 AND Will add more after $20)

STX = 1% (Sold some at $33.1). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=3% (Sold some at $88) Reasons

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4% – Will it miss next quarter’s earnings?

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red) – Worst Mistake Ever

TLT=2% (Sold most TLT last week)

Lastly, I got this in the email today morning –

Portfolio as of 08/03/2012

With almost nothing on the side, we move into a new week. Cash = 15%. Portfolio as of 7/28/2012

I still see opportunities such as LNKD@$102, MELI @$81, TDC@75.1, ROST@65, DKS@52, HIBB@63  and UTHR@52.1.

JPM=3% (Entered at $33.9)

DG = 5% (Enetered at $51)

TFM=5% (Entered at $59.5)

WWWW=3% (Entered at $17.5 AND Will add more after $20)

STX = 3% (Might add more depending on OCZ acquisition and today’s results). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=6% (Expect it to reach $119) Reasons – VERY DISAPPOINTED WITH THE EARNINGS, THINKING OF CUTTING BACK 50%.

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4% — Will it miss next quarter’s earnings?

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red) — Worst Mistake Ever

TLT=2% (Sold most TLT last week)

Portfolio as of 7/28/2012

I have been expanding my foot print slowly but steadily. Portfolio as of 7/16/2012.
Cash = 30%

STX = 3% (Might add more depending on OCZ acquisition and today’s results). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=6% (Expect it to reach $119) Reasons

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4%

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red)

TLT=5%

Four Growth Stories – SWKS, SWI, EQIX and SCSS

SWKS

Skyworks designs and manufactures several types of chips that enable wireless capabilities in cell phones and tablets. The company’s circuits are used in the devices of Apple, HTC and Samsung. Long known as a Power Amplifier (PAs) manufacturer, the company now offers the full range of analog, radio-frequency (i.e., RF), and power management circuits between the handset transceiver and antenna. It has recently added power management circuits to its portfolio.

SWKS reported solid fiscal third-quarter earnings and gave investors a bright fourth-quarter outlook.

Mar-11 75% 33%
jun-11 40% 25%
Sep-11 33% 30%
dec-11 -10% 20%
Mar-12 -33% 13%
Jun-12 60% 10%

SWI

SolarWinds has been on a tear for the last year and a half; the company’s second-quarter sales increased by 40% year over year to $64 million–the fifth straight quarter that SolarWinds’ year-over-year sales growth has accelerated–and beat management’s first-quarter guidance of $59.0 million-$60.2 million. SolarWinds’ performance is particularly impressive because the company is focused on growing its operations in a tough European market.

Break out buyers – $48 was break out point, but in this market just initiate a 50% position.

SWI eps Change Sales Change
Mar-11 31% 25%
Jun-11 28% 29%
Sep-11 49% 31%
Dec-11 21% 34%
Mar-12 40% 40%
Jun-12 50% 40%

EQIX

Equinix is the largest network-neutral provider of data centers in the world. Equinix’s customers have the ability to plug into a host of network providers to speed up connections to content partners, financial exchanges, ad servers, and the like. As Internet traffic grows as a result of cloud computing, video streaming, and continued enterprise outsourcing of data centers, managing bandwidth and network connections becomes more complex.

This company serves 4000 clients and routes almost 90% of world’s internet traffic.

Only concern I have is the slowing growth.

Mar-11 50% 85%
Jun-11 1400% 33%
Sep-11 -13% 30%
Dec-11 30% 28%
Mar-12 40% 27%
Jun-12 15% 18%

Market generally doesn’t like slowing growth specially for high multiples company.

SCSS

I have owned this company in the first quarter of the year and again started a position last week. No, I don’t have a crystal ball, I bought it after the earnings. The company makes sleep number mattress and has been on a roll for over last 6 quarters.

I have buy orders in place at $25.5.

  • Sales were up 27% YoY.
  • Same store sales were up 25% YoY, unchanged from the 25% for the same quarter last year.
  • The company was able to achieve an EPS of $0.3. This was 11% higher than the Street’s estimate of $0.27.
  • The number of stores is being increased from 381 last year ending December 2011, to the 408-412 range at present.
SCSS eps Change Sales Change
Mar-11 114% 22%
Jun-11 82% 16%
Sep-11 63% 25%
Dec-11 85% 27%
Mar-12 33% 40%
Jun-12 51% 27%

It’s no secret that AAPL …..

AAPL

Earning is out and AAPL sees another quarter of double-digit growth. But ……

  1.  Apple shipped approximately 26 million iPhone units during the June quarter. Analysts were expecting a little more than 28 million units shipped for the period.
  2. Revenue rose 23% to $35 billion, which also fell below analysts’ estimates of $37 Billion.
  3. The iPhone and iPad maker reported fiscal third-quarter net income of $8.8 billion, or $9.32 a share, up from $7.31 billion, or $7.79 a share, a year earlier. But this missed the estimates as well. The analysts were expecting $10.37.

Finally the almighty AAPL missed the estimates and the shares tanked. But please do not compare apple Inc. with other tech growth stories because AAPL still sports a P/E of 13 compared to 184 of Amazon Inc and 50 of VMW.

The question is where do we re-enter apple so that Iphone 5 bonanza is not missed.

  • I see two entry points – $555 and $520. So I suggest that you split your $$$$ into two parts and then invest.
  • I personally split my money into 3 parts – Now, $555 and $520.

Lastly the domino effect of AAPL miss will be felt by – SWKS, CRUS, QCOM, OVTI and TQNT. Did I miss anything?

Earnings Blitz

Let’s start with the hot shot of the evening.

MLNX

Mellanox Technologies Ltd., the Israeli maker of technology used to transfer data, reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates as revenue surpassed $100 million for the first time. The stock jumped from $66 after hours to $95. Kudos to MLNX owners!

The Yokneam Elit, Israel-based company reported adjusted earnings per share of 99 cents, more than the 73.5-cent mean estimate of 11 analysts. The adapter maker, which advanced 6.7 percent today, posted quarterly sales of $133.5 million, a 111 percent increase over the same period last year.

It would be interesting to see the domino of this stock on another Israeli networking company ALLT.

SWKS

SWKS beat analysts’ estimates, though it forecast this quarter’s results slightly below consensus.

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose 9%, year over year, to $389 million, yielding EPS of 45 cents. Analysts on average had been modeling $382.2 million and 44 cents a share. For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $415 million to $420 million, and EPS in a range of 50 cents to 51 cents. That is slightly below the consensus of $418.6 million and 51 cents a share.

Skyworks stock is up $2.46, or 9%, at $29.05 in late trading. This is of interest once it crosses $29.5 and will be of more interest once the $30 level is breached.

SCSS

Select Comfort, known for its Sleep Number line of adjustable-firmness mattresses, has been increasing its store count and ramping up promotions to gain share from rivals.

The company, which has beaten earnings estimates for more than three years, said same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, rose 25 percent. Now compare this with TPX

Select Comfort’s second-quarter income rose to $17 million, or 30 cents per share, from $11.3 million, or 20 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales jumped 27 percent to $205.2 million. Analysts on average had expected earnings of 27 cents a share on revenue of $198.3 million.

Even though I had suggested to short it at $24, which the stock never reached, I think that $25 is a good entry point. There is lot of support for the stock at $25 and if market continues to move north, this stock will reach atleast $30.

QCOM

Qualcomm’s forecasts for sales and profit this quarter missed analysts’ predictions. Fiscal fourth-quarter profit will be 62 cents to 68 cents a share on sales of $4.45 billion to $4.85 billion, San Diego-based Qualcomm said in a statement yesterday. Analysts were projecting profit of 76 cents a share and sales of $4.89 billion.

But the share is up almost 6% and at one time it was down by almost 5%. Don’t ask, don’t tell!

FFIV

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose 21.3%, year over year, and 3.8%, quarter-to-quarter, to $352.6 million, yielding EPS of $1.14. Analysts on average had been expecting $352.9 million and $1.14 per share.

For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $360 million to $370 million, and EPS of $1.16 to $1.19, citing that “cautious spending environment in the current global economy.” That is below consensus of $384 million and $1.24 per share.

It’s not doing too bad, but I expect it to at least revisit $89.

IBM

The Dow industrials component raised its full-year operating-earnings outlook to “at least $15.10” a share. Analysts currently expect per-share earnings of $15.05. Adjusted operating profit at IBM for the second quarter was $3.51 a share, and revenue was $25.8 billion, down from $26.7 billion a year ago. Analysts were expecting $3.43 a share on revenue of $26.3 billion for the most recent period. Result – it’s up 3%.

EBAY

The company’s second-quarter adjusted earnings of 55 cents a share — a penny a share better than the consensus estimate at FactSet. Revenue rose to $3.4 billion from $2.8 billion a year ago, ahead of Wall Street’s forecast of $3.36 billion in sales. On the basis of my experience, EBAY can easily run up to $49, if the market is favorable.

AGU

AGU said that it expects 2nd quarter earnings of $5.5 compared to estimate of $4.84. This is an awesome beat of almost 20%. This is interesting because stock is still cheap after a 20% run up.