Current Portfolio

Lot of mixed signals –

Over last few weeks, during the prime of earnings season, the markets underwent a “so-so” corretion. Call it years of practice, ability to recognize historical behaviour or plain simple luck, I was able to move at least 40% of money into cash. This was around mid Jan, 2014.

Now everything is not Black & White. What perplexed me that some of the leading stocks from 2013 just rolled over such as MDSO, AMZN, LNKD, etc; but the ones that jumped, went straight to stratosphere. Look at KORS, AKAM, NFLX, GMCR, etc. Interestingly some of the leaders have held steady as pointed out in my twits e.g. FB, GILD, PCLN, TSLA, GOOG, etc. Lastly, there is money flowing into housing and networking stocks, so we might be in sector rotation.

So final verdict dont worry about the gurus on CNBC, market will either go sideways or up (see my next post).

My Current portfolio –

CASH – 20% +

LONG

GILD – 9%

FB – 9%

FFIV – 5%

CMG – 5%

ALXN – 6% (Recent Buy)

NFLX – 5% (Recent Buy)

UTHR – 6%

LEN – 4% (Recent Buy)

DHI – 3% (Recent Buy)

QCOM – 3%

KORS – 3% (Will add more at $91)

FLT – 4%

MDSO – 5%

UA – 3% ( WIll add more at $101)

CLR – 2% (I might close it after having it for years)

REGN – 2% (Will add more on breakout from the base)

SHORT

TWTR – 4% (Recent Buy)

I recently closed GMCR. I am contemplating buying either TSLA, PCLN, (with earnings around corner, there is risk) AKAM, BIIB, ATHN or WYNN. I am also thinking of shorting AMZN – hey it’s ripe now.

Hmm! Need to revisit IBD’s market smith and telechart to finalize the buys.

 

 

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Portfolio Holdings as of 02/04/2013 (& last three month returns)

Slow but Sturdy

QCOM – (Entered at $59) – 5%

GILD – (Entered at $55 Pre-split) – 5%

EBAY – (Entered at $51) – 5%

F – (Entered at $16 and doubled at $9) – 8%

NOV – (Entered at $66) – 6%

ROST – (Entered at $65 and doubled at $57) – 5%

HAL – (Entered at $30, sold at $37 and added more at $35 later) – 5%

AAPL – (Entered at $350, sold 50% at $590, added more at $500 later) – 8%

FFIV – (Entered at $104) – 4%

HD – (Entered at $60) – 6%

Aggressive growth

LEN – (Entered at $36) – 4%

DHI – (Entered $22.8 (recent)) – 3%

WLK – (Entered at $75 & sold 50% $92 recently) – 3%

LNKD – (Entered at $95 and sold 50% at $124 recently) – 3%

CLR – (Entered at $75) – 4%

URI – (ENTERED AT $37.5) – 5%

CHUY – (Entered at $26.5 and doubled at $28.5) – 3%

FB – (Entered at $25.5, sold some at $32.5 but added more at $28.9 later) – 3%

CVLT – (Entered at $75.5) – 5%

DKS – (Entered at $50) – 4%

LVS – (Entered at $54) – 2%

Returns generated in two accounts (aggressive and long term (401K + stocks)) in last three months –

Returns

Portfolio as of 9/16/2012

My portfolio hasn’t changed much over last few weeks (again MUCH is a relative term;)). But first let’s pledge our allegiance to Mr. Bernanke,the great savior of the markets. Mr Bernanke came out once again to mitigate the impact of bad job numbers. I guess sooner or later Bruce Wayne will have competition.

Four weeks ago I told my colleague that I am seeing very strong buy signals. In last four years I have seen such signal fail only twice. So I went all in! WooHoo!!

I added eight new stocks and two ETFs to the portfolio in last month. I also got rid of EQIX at $199. I am thinking of adding ULTA and getting back into EQIX – Nothing as of now. I will talk about them in details in the next post.

I sold TFM due to the breakdown. I also bought and sold CRUS – bought it at $35.5 and sold it at $40.1. I am surprised by it’s move to $45 – apple effect. I also unloaded STX after a long time. I plan on hanging on with only one high beta disk drive company.

Some people might say that I own a lot of stocks but I have been tracking most of these companies for over 3 years and buy and sell signals are generated by programs. I own a lot of stocks because I dont want to overexpose myself to anyone company. The companies that I own is a mix of fast growers and slow growers (called GARP). There are handful of value stocks as well such as APA, F, HAL, etc.

Please talk to me before jumping in because we are due a 4 to 5% correction before the Santa Claus rally starts. Also being an election year, the market has to end in positive (+16% isn’t too bad either). What I mean is that we might remain flat for rest of the year. Lastly, I plan on taking some profits off the table by selling some ALXN, UA,LNKD, JPM, etc.

You can see my previous portfolio update here.

Cash=2%.

SLV=3% (Entered at $29.5)

GLD=5% (Entered at $160.5)

LNKD=5% (Entered at $101 and some at $113.5)

UTHR=5% (Entered at $53.5)

KORS=4% (Entered at $51.5)

NOV=4% (Entered at$77.5) (Price target is $100 and I plan on adding more after $86)

ARUN=4% (Entered at $19.5) (Price target is $25)

CLR=4% (Entered at$76.5 and added more at $80.2) (Price target is $95)

JPM=4% (Entered at $33.9) (Price target is $45)

DG = 5% (Enetered at $51)

WWWW=3% (Entered at $17.5 AND Will add more after $20)

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons for purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $630)

WDC = 4% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=3% (Sold some at $88) Reasons

HAL =6% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=4% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons for purchase. (I missed the doubling oppurtunity)

SCSS=4% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons for purchase. (This is sleep number mattress which I entered at $26.1)

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons for purchase. I am very disappointed with it’s price action. I don’t know what market expects of this company even after Iphone 5 release.

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red) – Worst Mistake Ever

Ready to Fold some – Portfolio as of 08/13/2012

I guess it’s time to take some profits my friends. Cash = 25%. Portfolio as of 08/03/2012

I still see opportunities such as LNKD@$102, MELI @$84, TDC@75.1, ROST@65, DKS@50.5, HIBB@63  and UTHR@52.1. But I would suggest that purchases of ROST, DKS and HIBB should be avoided till the earnings are out.

Earning’s gain. See CRUS below.


Earning’s Pain. See Priceline below.

If you can take a hit please feel free to buy 50% position in ROST and DKS.

JPM=3% (Entered at $33.9)

DG = 5% (Enetered at $51)

TFM=5% (Entered at $59.5)

WWWW=3% (Entered at $17.5 AND Will add more after $20)

STX = 1% (Sold some at $33.1). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=3% (Sold some at $88) Reasons

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4% – Will it miss next quarter’s earnings?

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red) – Worst Mistake Ever

TLT=2% (Sold most TLT last week)

Lastly, I got this in the email today morning –

Performance Year To Date – Three Best purchases, Two Ugly Mistakes and One Missed Boat (& a Sexy Short!)

Performance in Quarter 1

Last four months have been one heck of a roller coaster ride. One account lost 12% where as the other account made 15%. But overall the returns have been in the vicinity of 30% YTD.

The major boost that the portfolio got was from the turn around of STX and WDC, the largest holding.

Please see below –

BEST PURCHASES OF THE YEAR –

AAPL

SCSS

ALXN

WORST SALES

URI

FFIV

MISSED BOAT

SWI

SEXY SHORT –

GMCR

Portfolio as of 7/28/2012

I have been expanding my foot print slowly but steadily. Portfolio as of 7/16/2012.
Cash = 30%

STX = 3% (Might add more depending on OCZ acquisition and today’s results). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=6% (Expect it to reach $119) Reasons

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4%

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red)

TLT=5%

Earnings Blitz

Let’s start with the hot shot of the evening.

MLNX

Mellanox Technologies Ltd., the Israeli maker of technology used to transfer data, reported second-quarter earnings that exceeded analyst estimates as revenue surpassed $100 million for the first time. The stock jumped from $66 after hours to $95. Kudos to MLNX owners!

The Yokneam Elit, Israel-based company reported adjusted earnings per share of 99 cents, more than the 73.5-cent mean estimate of 11 analysts. The adapter maker, which advanced 6.7 percent today, posted quarterly sales of $133.5 million, a 111 percent increase over the same period last year.

It would be interesting to see the domino of this stock on another Israeli networking company ALLT.

SWKS

SWKS beat analysts’ estimates, though it forecast this quarter’s results slightly below consensus.

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose 9%, year over year, to $389 million, yielding EPS of 45 cents. Analysts on average had been modeling $382.2 million and 44 cents a share. For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $415 million to $420 million, and EPS in a range of 50 cents to 51 cents. That is slightly below the consensus of $418.6 million and 51 cents a share.

Skyworks stock is up $2.46, or 9%, at $29.05 in late trading. This is of interest once it crosses $29.5 and will be of more interest once the $30 level is breached.

SCSS

Select Comfort, known for its Sleep Number line of adjustable-firmness mattresses, has been increasing its store count and ramping up promotions to gain share from rivals.

The company, which has beaten earnings estimates for more than three years, said same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, rose 25 percent. Now compare this with TPX

Select Comfort’s second-quarter income rose to $17 million, or 30 cents per share, from $11.3 million, or 20 cents per share, a year earlier. Sales jumped 27 percent to $205.2 million. Analysts on average had expected earnings of 27 cents a share on revenue of $198.3 million.

Even though I had suggested to short it at $24, which the stock never reached, I think that $25 is a good entry point. There is lot of support for the stock at $25 and if market continues to move north, this stock will reach atleast $30.

QCOM

Qualcomm’s forecasts for sales and profit this quarter missed analysts’ predictions. Fiscal fourth-quarter profit will be 62 cents to 68 cents a share on sales of $4.45 billion to $4.85 billion, San Diego-based Qualcomm said in a statement yesterday. Analysts were projecting profit of 76 cents a share and sales of $4.89 billion.

But the share is up almost 6% and at one time it was down by almost 5%. Don’t ask, don’t tell!

FFIV

Revenue in the three months ended in June rose 21.3%, year over year, and 3.8%, quarter-to-quarter, to $352.6 million, yielding EPS of $1.14. Analysts on average had been expecting $352.9 million and $1.14 per share.

For the current quarter, the company sees revenue in a range of $360 million to $370 million, and EPS of $1.16 to $1.19, citing that “cautious spending environment in the current global economy.” That is below consensus of $384 million and $1.24 per share.

It’s not doing too bad, but I expect it to at least revisit $89.

IBM

The Dow industrials component raised its full-year operating-earnings outlook to “at least $15.10” a share. Analysts currently expect per-share earnings of $15.05. Adjusted operating profit at IBM for the second quarter was $3.51 a share, and revenue was $25.8 billion, down from $26.7 billion a year ago. Analysts were expecting $3.43 a share on revenue of $26.3 billion for the most recent period. Result – it’s up 3%.

EBAY

The company’s second-quarter adjusted earnings of 55 cents a share — a penny a share better than the consensus estimate at FactSet. Revenue rose to $3.4 billion from $2.8 billion a year ago, ahead of Wall Street’s forecast of $3.36 billion in sales. On the basis of my experience, EBAY can easily run up to $49, if the market is favorable.

AGU

AGU said that it expects 2nd quarter earnings of $5.5 compared to estimate of $4.84. This is an awesome beat of almost 20%. This is interesting because stock is still cheap after a 20% run up.