Best Calls of 2013

Guys,

It aint over till it’s over. I wanted to list out the stocks that made me some GREENS last year.

celg

Celgene, CELG – Until last week, this was a rockstar find.  7 straight up quarters with 25%+ earnings. Result, the stock went from below $100 to upto $170. Last week’s uneventful earnings coupled with the bad press has pushed down the stock. I got rid of 50% holdings once the 50 DMA was breached. I might drop all because my portfolio is biotech  heavy.

CMG

CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill, a household name with outstanding profits. Now tell me how many retail/restaurants can boast that the quarter of Christmas/Holidays, its same store sales went up by 9.3% – !@#$%^&*( – I mean seriously!

I unloaded all of them at $503, when I realized that the twin peak’s floor would give away. But a day before earnings, at $480, which was the support, I decided to get my foot in again. Boy, was that a sexy call!!!!!

EWBC

East West BanCorp, EWBC – Hey, I aint Chinese and neither do I live in west cosast. So why EWBC? It’s no rocket science – when the world was crumbling, when all the banks were falling apart, there was a bank near the china town of San Francisco, EWBC. The bad loan on its books was miniscle compared to behemoths such as JPM, BAC, etc. The feds went to the extent to coerce it to buy its larger compititor to become the biggest bank in California apart from being a bridge to Beijing.

I first owned this bank at $8. It still continues to be the flag bearer bank. Recently, EWBC closed the purchase of the metropoliton bank in Houston, thus expanding its foot print.

FB

FB, FaceBook – Shall I say less!! My priniciples are the only reason I have had the hefty profit in this company even though I havent logged into FB since ages. Passion for work, stocks and helping NPOs takes it’s own toll.

I bought it at $33 and added & sold some multiple times. The breakthrough of making money via mobile adversting has been the recipe of succcess for FB. In its last quarter FB made 60% of its earnings through mobile adverstising.  FB needs to diversify else it will end up like GOOG, which also had 22% increase in adverstising revenue. But for now FB is good.

FLT

Fleetcor, FLT – Organic or inorganic, the numbers paint the true picture. This company has been growing at a brisk pace.

GILD

GILD , Gilead Sciences – Is this my poster stock? Maybe, I have owned it for two year and have sold and bought it multiple times. This might be the most profitable stock I ever owned. Look at its drug pipeline. I will quote an analyst – Gilead will annihilate the last quarter’s numbers and thus head to $100.

PCLN

PCLN, Priceline, another profitable trade, that I still own. I sold some recently.

In a nushell, these were some of my best calls of 2013!

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Portfolio As of 4/12/2012

Cash 40%.

Portfolio –

AAPL – 3%

PCLN- 4%

STX – 6%

WDC – 6%

HLF – 3%

SCSS – 4%

SXCI – 4%

QCOM – 6%

BLV – 3%

TLT – 3%

RWM – 3%

FFIV – 3%

F – 6%

APA – 6%

Sold last week –

CLR, WLL, ALLT, GNC, LNKD (I know!)

Reasons for the sale –

  1. Market broke 2 critical supports last week – 4 month old trendline and 50 DMA. Let’s wait till the market moves above 50 MA and makes new high, convincingly  (no double tops please:().
  2. The earnings season is underway. It’s better to reduce the high fliers by 50% to avoid losing profits.
  3. Quite a few breakouts in last couple of weeks have stalled, failed and occurred at below average volume – such as SWI, WDC, LVS, etc.
  4. Old adage – Sell in summer and go somewhere ( dont ask me where!.)

Lastly I added small positions of defensive stocks as mentioned earlier – BLV, TLT and RWM.

Week ahead –

  1. Stay defensive, preserve capital below the prior trading range. Above the range, expect a move back to and above the prior highs.
  2. Do not trade intraday, but rather focus on setups and keep an eye on earnings
  3. U.S. week ahead (Reuters)
  4. Next week’s trading radar (Minyanville)

Good Reads –

Where do we go from here?

So ladies and gentlemen, after a scintillating 2012 Q1, where are we headed?

The stock market continues to be in a bull market. Every analyst from every bank is changing his/her year end target of S&P500. Some claim improving job market, some site housing market is turning around and some are just catching up. According to me don’t pay any heed to these people.  Just follow the market and it seems to be doing good -forecasting doesn’t help. In fact any kind of anticipation will bring ego and emotion in your trade.

 

But there are few things that concern me – lack of participation by public, oversold energy sector and the laggard Russel 2000.

The things that can impact the markets this week

Apr 02
ISM Index – Mar
Apr 02
Construction Spending – Feb
Apr 03
Auto Sales – Mar
Apr 03
Factory Orders – Feb
Apr 04
ADP Employment Change – Mar
Apr 06
Unemployment Rate – Mar

 

 

Top 10% stocks of 2012 Q1

The following stocks have been filtered on basis of following Criteria –

  1. Last three month returns in top 10%.
  2. Price Above 50 DMA.
  3. Prica Above 200 DMA
  4. 20 Day Average Volume > 150000
  5. Earnings Latest Quarter > 0
  6. Price > 10
  7. Price is within 20% of 52 Week High.
  8. Market Cap > 200 Million

The one’s flagged are currently part of my portfolio. Stocks that are highlighted in green were part of my portfolio in last three months. And the stocks highlighted in blue are the ones that I am eyeing. Most of these “featured” companies have outstanding earnings/revenue growth  such as LULU, TPX, INFA, EMC, AAPL, etc. Some of these companies might continue to rally for next 6-12 months depending on market.

FaceOff – China data vs US data

And the winner is China PMI. The Dow ended lower for a third consecutive session dropping 78 points as concerns mount over China’s manufacturing index being down for the 5th month in a row.  The S&P 500 lost 10 points today and the NASDAQ lost 12 points. This was despite the fact that new jobless claims fell more than expected last week, while an index of leading economic indicators for February rose more than forecast.

China’s manufacturing activity shrank in March for the fifth straight month, while manufacturing in the 17-member euro zone contracted more than expected, led by declines in France and Germany. This took toll on sectors such as energy, materials and industrial.

But despite all this we are still in bull as long as we hang onto 1370 in S&P 500. This current mild weakness in the averages is not unexpected given the magnitude of the market move from October of last year.  It would not surprise me to see continued short term sideways action over the near term or even a drop of 2% points.

So if you look at charts above 1370 will act as pivot point. The reasons are – you have previous high support, 50 DMA and the trend line support. Moreover the breakouts did not disappoint today – look at LNKD, WDC, ALLT and GNC. Surprisingly LULU reversed even after not so weak guidance. LULU might have lost it’s momo status.

Good Reads. Tons of them today –

China & Eurozone factories shrink (REU)

Another day of Copper beating (BL)

Keystone XL – Again! (BL)

US Economy and Sentiment (BL)

Hunger Games (MW)

Oil lower amid talk of tapping reserves (FIN)

Gold in tandem with China as well! (REU)