Bad Calls of Year 2013 – Boats that sank and rides that were missed!

AAPL

AAPL, Apple –

This was a failure of epic proportions. I failed to follow what I preach – Do Not Fall in Love With the Stocks you Own.  I saw the stock reach the pinnacle, and I saw it crumble. Theoretically I should have pulled the plug at $620.

 

WYNN

WYNN,  Wynn Resorts of Mr. Steve Wynn was cheap all throughout 2013. I bought ut but sold it at 200 MA, which is very disappointing.

 

wwww

WWWW, the Web.com Group – This is a textbook head and shoulder with breakout at $20.5. I bought it at $22 and sold it immediately.

 

URI

URI, United Rental. This is the kind of company that is a poster boy of a recovering economy. You see them from workers who fix the power lines to workers constructing homes. After closing following it for a year, I missed the bus.

Performance Year To Date – Three Best purchases, Two Ugly Mistakes and One Missed Boat (& a Sexy Short!)

Performance in Quarter 1

Last four months have been one heck of a roller coaster ride. One account lost 12% where as the other account made 15%. But overall the returns have been in the vicinity of 30% YTD.

The major boost that the portfolio got was from the turn around of STX and WDC, the largest holding.

Please see below –

BEST PURCHASES OF THE YEAR –

AAPL

SCSS

ALXN

WORST SALES

URI

FFIV

MISSED BOAT

SWI

SEXY SHORT –

GMCR

Portfolio as of 08/03/2012

With almost nothing on the side, we move into a new week. Cash = 15%. Portfolio as of 7/28/2012

I still see opportunities such as LNKD@$102, MELI @$81, TDC@75.1, ROST@65, DKS@52, HIBB@63  and UTHR@52.1.

JPM=3% (Entered at $33.9)

DG = 5% (Enetered at $51)

TFM=5% (Entered at $59.5)

WWWW=3% (Entered at $17.5 AND Will add more after $20)

STX = 3% (Might add more depending on OCZ acquisition and today’s results). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=6% (Expect it to reach $119) Reasons – VERY DISAPPOINTED WITH THE EARNINGS, THINKING OF CUTTING BACK 50%.

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4% — Will it miss next quarter’s earnings?

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red) — Worst Mistake Ever

TLT=2% (Sold most TLT last week)

Portfolio as of 7/28/2012

I have been expanding my foot print slowly but steadily. Portfolio as of 7/16/2012.
Cash = 30%

STX = 3% (Might add more depending on OCZ acquisition and today’s results). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=6% (Expect it to reach $119) Reasons

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4%

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red)

TLT=5%

Four Growth Stories – SWKS, SWI, EQIX and SCSS

SWKS

Skyworks designs and manufactures several types of chips that enable wireless capabilities in cell phones and tablets. The company’s circuits are used in the devices of Apple, HTC and Samsung. Long known as a Power Amplifier (PAs) manufacturer, the company now offers the full range of analog, radio-frequency (i.e., RF), and power management circuits between the handset transceiver and antenna. It has recently added power management circuits to its portfolio.

SWKS reported solid fiscal third-quarter earnings and gave investors a bright fourth-quarter outlook.

Mar-11 75% 33%
jun-11 40% 25%
Sep-11 33% 30%
dec-11 -10% 20%
Mar-12 -33% 13%
Jun-12 60% 10%

SWI

SolarWinds has been on a tear for the last year and a half; the company’s second-quarter sales increased by 40% year over year to $64 million–the fifth straight quarter that SolarWinds’ year-over-year sales growth has accelerated–and beat management’s first-quarter guidance of $59.0 million-$60.2 million. SolarWinds’ performance is particularly impressive because the company is focused on growing its operations in a tough European market.

Break out buyers – $48 was break out point, but in this market just initiate a 50% position.

SWI eps Change Sales Change
Mar-11 31% 25%
Jun-11 28% 29%
Sep-11 49% 31%
Dec-11 21% 34%
Mar-12 40% 40%
Jun-12 50% 40%

EQIX

Equinix is the largest network-neutral provider of data centers in the world. Equinix’s customers have the ability to plug into a host of network providers to speed up connections to content partners, financial exchanges, ad servers, and the like. As Internet traffic grows as a result of cloud computing, video streaming, and continued enterprise outsourcing of data centers, managing bandwidth and network connections becomes more complex.

This company serves 4000 clients and routes almost 90% of world’s internet traffic.

Only concern I have is the slowing growth.

Mar-11 50% 85%
Jun-11 1400% 33%
Sep-11 -13% 30%
Dec-11 30% 28%
Mar-12 40% 27%
Jun-12 15% 18%

Market generally doesn’t like slowing growth specially for high multiples company.

SCSS

I have owned this company in the first quarter of the year and again started a position last week. No, I don’t have a crystal ball, I bought it after the earnings. The company makes sleep number mattress and has been on a roll for over last 6 quarters.

I have buy orders in place at $25.5.

  • Sales were up 27% YoY.
  • Same store sales were up 25% YoY, unchanged from the 25% for the same quarter last year.
  • The company was able to achieve an EPS of $0.3. This was 11% higher than the Street’s estimate of $0.27.
  • The number of stores is being increased from 381 last year ending December 2011, to the 408-412 range at present.
SCSS eps Change Sales Change
Mar-11 114% 22%
Jun-11 82% 16%
Sep-11 63% 25%
Dec-11 85% 27%
Mar-12 33% 40%
Jun-12 51% 27%

Portfolio as of 5/2/2012

STX – 4% (Sold some today)

WDC – 7%

APA – 6% (Super Long Term)

QCOM – 6%  (Super Long Term)

ALLT – 5% ( Added some more after recent earnings)

GNC – 5%

FFIV – 7%  (Super Long Term)

URI – 7%

HAL – 6%  (Super Long Term)

VMW – 7%  ( Long Term)

TXRH – 3% (Initiated Yesterday)

UA – 3% ( Stop set at $93 and will add if it goes above $103)

TLT – 6%

F – 7%  (Super Long Term)

SWI – 3% ( Will add more around $43.9)

PCLN – 3% (Took significant profit off the table recently)  (Long Term)

CASH – 10%

Stocks which make up less than 5% of PORTFOLIO might be sold or added based on criteria, market condition, etc. I am very nimble and hence very low turn around time.

Shorts in the Making – GMCR, DECK, NFLX and Double Top!

Let’s quickly look at some of the stocks. PLease enlarge the images to get the entry points.

ON 5/3/2012 – I initiated a short of decker at $54.7 – 3% position. Stop loss is set at $57

On 5/3/2012 – with stop loss set at $31, I initiated a short of GMCR at $29.5.

Lastly, why so many shorts – DOUBLE TOP in the making?