Best Calls of 2013

Guys,

It aint over till it’s over. I wanted to list out the stocks that made me some GREENS last year.

celg

Celgene, CELG – Until last week, this was a rockstar find.  7 straight up quarters with 25%+ earnings. Result, the stock went from below $100 to upto $170. Last week’s uneventful earnings coupled with the bad press has pushed down the stock. I got rid of 50% holdings once the 50 DMA was breached. I might drop all because my portfolio is biotech  heavy.

CMG

CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill, a household name with outstanding profits. Now tell me how many retail/restaurants can boast that the quarter of Christmas/Holidays, its same store sales went up by 9.3% – !@#$%^&*( – I mean seriously!

I unloaded all of them at $503, when I realized that the twin peak’s floor would give away. But a day before earnings, at $480, which was the support, I decided to get my foot in again. Boy, was that a sexy call!!!!!

EWBC

East West BanCorp, EWBC – Hey, I aint Chinese and neither do I live in west cosast. So why EWBC? It’s no rocket science – when the world was crumbling, when all the banks were falling apart, there was a bank near the china town of San Francisco, EWBC. The bad loan on its books was miniscle compared to behemoths such as JPM, BAC, etc. The feds went to the extent to coerce it to buy its larger compititor to become the biggest bank in California apart from being a bridge to Beijing.

I first owned this bank at $8. It still continues to be the flag bearer bank. Recently, EWBC closed the purchase of the metropoliton bank in Houston, thus expanding its foot print.

FB

FB, FaceBook – Shall I say less!! My priniciples are the only reason I have had the hefty profit in this company even though I havent logged into FB since ages. Passion for work, stocks and helping NPOs takes it’s own toll.

I bought it at $33 and added & sold some multiple times. The breakthrough of making money via mobile adversting has been the recipe of succcess for FB. In its last quarter FB made 60% of its earnings through mobile adverstising.  FB needs to diversify else it will end up like GOOG, which also had 22% increase in adverstising revenue. But for now FB is good.

FLT

Fleetcor, FLT – Organic or inorganic, the numbers paint the true picture. This company has been growing at a brisk pace.

GILD

GILD , Gilead Sciences – Is this my poster stock? Maybe, I have owned it for two year and have sold and bought it multiple times. This might be the most profitable stock I ever owned. Look at its drug pipeline. I will quote an analyst – Gilead will annihilate the last quarter’s numbers and thus head to $100.

PCLN

PCLN, Priceline, another profitable trade, that I still own. I sold some recently.

In a nushell, these were some of my best calls of 2013!

Let’s usher in the new year by reviewing the returns of year 2013

Have anyone of you guys seen the Wolf of the Wall Street. Nice movie and nice year to realease it too. Just a fun fact for the market geeks and the movie buffs – 1997 was the year last roamed by the Wolf of the Wall Street, Jordan Belfort and 1997 was the last year when we saw a 30% returns.

One of my friends told me that he really doesnt want to let go of the year 2013. Yep, it’s been a phenomenal year. The $SPX, the reprsentative of the the broad market, gained 29.6%. as mentioned earlier, it was it’s best annual gain since 1997. Nasdaq gained 38% and the blue chips, Dow Jones Industrial Average, bagged 26.5%. We will discuss about the intricate details in the coming posts, some of which might spook you, some might startle you and some might make you rethink the 2014 invesment strategies.

So let’s delve into returns my portfolio generated. Following are the returns generated in real accounts, no paper money, Sire!

The account in interactivebrokers –

IBReturns2013

This account has companies such as Priceline (PCLN), Chipotle Mexican Gril (CMG), Apple (AAPL), Gilead Sciences (GILD), etc.

Following is the returns of account where I hold Micheal Kors (KORS), Celgene (CELG), Bank Of America (BAC), etc.

 TDReturns

Lastly, the returns from the 401K account which in addtions to the mututal funds such as FSCSX, has Facebook (FB), Continental Resources (CLR), Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), etc.

401KReturn

This is, in a nutshell, the returns I generated over last year.

Top Performing Stocks in Last 3 Months

Some of prime criteria used to filter these stocks are – the outstanding earnings growth (annually or quarterly) and revenue growth annually. I also restricted the price change to 35%.

The reason for filtering out this universe of stocks –

Next time when the market corrects some of these stocks will either buck the trend or bounce off the 50 DMA. The stocks that withstand the BEAR will go sideways with movement at least 1.5 times the market correction. I don’t need to explain the technicalities of 50 DMA bounce. So make a list of these stocks and wait for Mr. Market to take a breather.

TopStocksInLast3Mons_1

TopStocksInLast3Mons_2

Performance Year To Date – Three Best purchases, Two Ugly Mistakes and One Missed Boat (& a Sexy Short!)

Performance in Quarter 1

Last four months have been one heck of a roller coaster ride. One account lost 12% where as the other account made 15%. But overall the returns have been in the vicinity of 30% YTD.

The major boost that the portfolio got was from the turn around of STX and WDC, the largest holding.

Please see below –

BEST PURCHASES OF THE YEAR –

AAPL

SCSS

ALXN

WORST SALES

URI

FFIV

MISSED BOAT

SWI

SEXY SHORT –

GMCR

Portfolio as of 7/28/2012

I have been expanding my foot print slowly but steadily. Portfolio as of 7/16/2012.
Cash = 30%

STX = 3% (Might add more depending on OCZ acquisition and today’s results). Why Did I buy?

EMC = 4% (Expect it to reach $29.5) . Reasons of purchase.

AAPL = 4% (Set more buy @ $569)

WDC = 6% (Expect it to reach $49.5) Why Did I buy?

QCOM=5% (Expect it to reach $69, if it stays over $59 for few more days) Why Did I buy?

APA=6% (Expect it to reach $119) Reasons

HAL =5% (Expect it to reach $40) Reasons

UA=3% (Set additional buys @ $54.9) Reasons of purchase.

SCSS=2% (Set additional buys at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

SWKS=4% (Will add more at $25.9) Reasons of purchase.

EQIX=5% Reasons of purchase.

ALLT=4%

ALXN=6% Reasons

FFIV =3% (In Red) Reasons

F=5% (In Red)

TLT=5%

Bernanke does it again!

There is just too much to write. So I will split this post into two – Bernanke and Non-Bernanke (vis-a-vis the earnings).

After being down 82 points in the early going the Dow reversed course and closed 78 points higher on Tuesday. Wow! Then the Nasdaq surged 1.1% as the technology sector led the market today.

The reversal was due to Fed Bernanke’s testimony this morning that the Fed is willing to do what it takes if the economy and labor markets do not improve.  He expects historically low rates to remain in place at least until the end of 2014 and most importantly he convinced the participants that the policymakers at the central bank seem to be preparing for additional moves to spur the economy in the weeks or months ahead.

This low interest rate environment should help stem any serious correction in the market averages.

So, where does yesterday’s trading action leave us now? First, I don’t think that this is a short squeeze anymore. Second, yesterday qualified as a decent follow through day from Friday’s key reversal which is a positive development.

Moreover, the basing action in some stocks and the sector rotation is almost clear now. One last thing to notice is that the junta seems to have realized that the tech and oil & gas stocks have been beaten to death. See below –

In fact we see rise or less “severe” damage to stocks even after the poor guidance.

  1. To exemplify, look at the the turn around in STX after it pre-announced a revenue miss by 0.5 Billion dollars (seriously!) or even QCOM which reported fiscal Q3 revenue and earnings per share a little light of consensus, and a Q4 view below analysts’ estimates.
  2. And of course an earnings beat is amply getting rewarded. e.g. MLNX – up 43% after hours, SCSS – up 17% after hours and SWKS – up 10% after hours.

So step in but be cautious.

Food for thought –

  • FDA approves Vivus’s diet pill (ABC)
  • Over 70% of earnings beating estimates (REU)

 

 

 

Portfolio as of 7/16/2012

Cash 60%

LONGS

STX – 3%

WDC – 3% – It’s bloody.

FFIV – 3% – Deep red. (Will unload rest if stock goes below 87)

ALLT – 2%

HAL – 3% — Will add more (will add more at $30.75)

AAPL – 3%

QCOM – 3%

APA  – 3% — Will add more. (Doubled at $85.2)

TLT – 8%

BLV – 2%

RWM- 2%

SHORTS

CLR – 2% (Will double at 71$)

IWM – 3%