About

Sans investing life –

I am data mining expert. I live in Austin. I was recenlty blessed with son. The information on this site is solely my opinion and nothing has been audited till date.

Now all things investing

I have been investing for over Seven years and have gone through booms, busts and flat cycles of market. Decent experience in short duration!

What kind of investor am I -

I am a long term investor and my trades can last from few weeks to years. Only when I short a stock, I tend to behave like a day trader. I would actually categorize myself as trend investor. I dont try to catch the bottom (falling knife blah! blah!) but I definitely like to get in on break outs and certain technical flags, if Mr. Market is in agreement. I dont chase stocks and I try my best not to fall in love with stocks (I told ya – been there done that;)).

I am an avid student of market and analyze almost all of the trades that I make, especially the ones that went belly up. I have gone through the stocks the fundamentals and technicals of most of the successful stocks over last 10 years. Still, I have made mistakes and lots of them during the journey. I strive to not to repeat them.

I have rules – both Fundamental and Technical that govern my investments.

So where/how do I apply the rules -

1. Technicals are primarily pattern recognition and I use both Stockcharts.com & Telechart.com (I have written 30 odd programs to pick technically sound stocks)
2. Fundamental testing is done on Morningstar.com and Marketsmith.com (four times a year post-earnings season I buy monthly subscription of Marketsmith)

The goal of my investments are to cut the losses short and let the winners run the course. At any point of time I have 20+ stocks in my portfolio.

So why I am writing this blog -

Over last few years I have generated returns ranging from 5% Annually to 50% Annually. I am trying to improve my trades and one of the key piece that I have learnt is to document the reason of the trades (Jesse Livmore & Jim Rogers et al). The objective of this blog is to track all the trades that I make, reasons for the transaction and talk about the trend of over all market.

Frequency of Updates -

Going forward I will be updating the blog every Sunday and all the trades/suggestions will show up on promptly on twitter @sumeetvats.

Please feel free to trade with me and stick with the rules. One thing – please leave your emotions in the other room. Lastly, I wont recommend you a stock if I am not putting my hard earned money in it (hard earned – folks at Accenture slog their asses).

Welcome to my trading room!!!

Current Portfolio

Lot of mixed signals -

Over last few weeks, during the prime of earnings season, the markets underwent a “so-so” corretion. Call it years of practice, ability to recognize historical behaviour or plain simple luck, I was able to move at least 40% of money into cash. This was around mid Jan, 2014.

Now everything is not Black & White. What perplexed me that some of the leading stocks from 2013 just rolled over such as MDSO, AMZN, LNKD, etc; but the ones that jumped, went straight to stratosphere. Look at KORS, AKAM, NFLX, GMCR, etc. Interestingly some of the leaders have held steady as pointed out in my twits e.g. FB, GILD, PCLN, TSLA, GOOG, etc. Lastly, there is money flowing into housing and networking stocks, so we might be in sector rotation.

So final verdict dont worry about the gurus on CNBC, market will either go sideways or up (see my next post).

My Current portfolio -

CASH – 20% +

LONG

GILD – 9%

FB – 9%

FFIV – 5%

CMG – 5%

ALXN – 6% (Recent Buy)

NFLX – 5% (Recent Buy)

UTHR – 6%

LEN – 4% (Recent Buy)

DHI – 3% (Recent Buy)

QCOM – 3%

KORS – 3% (Will add more at $91)

FLT – 4%

MDSO – 5%

UA – 3% ( WIll add more at $101)

CLR – 2% (I might close it after having it for years)

REGN – 2% (Will add more on breakout from the base)

SHORT

TWTR – 4% (Recent Buy)

I recently closed GMCR. I am contemplating buying either TSLA, PCLN, (with earnings around corner, there is risk) AKAM, BIIB, ATHN or WYNN. I am also thinking of shorting AMZN – hey it’s ripe now.

Hmm! Need to revisit IBD’s market smith and telechart to finalize the buys.

 

 

Best Calls of 2013

Guys,

It aint over till it’s over. I wanted to list out the stocks that made me some GREENS last year.

celg

Celgene, CELG – Until last week, this was a rockstar find.  7 straight up quarters with 25%+ earnings. Result, the stock went from below $100 to upto $170. Last week’s uneventful earnings coupled with the bad press has pushed down the stock. I got rid of 50% holdings once the 50 DMA was breached. I might drop all because my portfolio is biotech  heavy.

CMG

CMG, Chipotle Mexican Grill, a household name with outstanding profits. Now tell me how many retail/restaurants can boast that the quarter of Christmas/Holidays, its same store sales went up by 9.3% – !@#$%^&*( – I mean seriously!

I unloaded all of them at $503, when I realized that the twin peak’s floor would give away. But a day before earnings, at $480, which was the support, I decided to get my foot in again. Boy, was that a sexy call!!!!!

EWBC

East West BanCorp, EWBC – Hey, I aint Chinese and neither do I live in west cosast. So why EWBC? It’s no rocket science – when the world was crumbling, when all the banks were falling apart, there was a bank near the china town of San Francisco, EWBC. The bad loan on its books was miniscle compared to behemoths such as JPM, BAC, etc. The feds went to the extent to coerce it to buy its larger compititor to become the biggest bank in California apart from being a bridge to Beijing.

I first owned this bank at $8. It still continues to be the flag bearer bank. Recently, EWBC closed the purchase of the metropoliton bank in Houston, thus expanding its foot print.

FB

FB, FaceBook – Shall I say less!! My priniciples are the only reason I have had the hefty profit in this company even though I havent logged into FB since ages. Passion for work, stocks and helping NPOs takes it’s own toll.

I bought it at $33 and added & sold some multiple times. The breakthrough of making money via mobile adversting has been the recipe of succcess for FB. In its last quarter FB made 60% of its earnings through mobile adverstising.  FB needs to diversify else it will end up like GOOG, which also had 22% increase in adverstising revenue. But for now FB is good.

FLT

Fleetcor, FLT – Organic or inorganic, the numbers paint the true picture. This company has been growing at a brisk pace.

GILD

GILD , Gilead Sciences – Is this my poster stock? Maybe, I have owned it for two year and have sold and bought it multiple times. This might be the most profitable stock I ever owned. Look at its drug pipeline. I will quote an analyst – Gilead will annihilate the last quarter’s numbers and thus head to $100.

PCLN

PCLN, Priceline, another profitable trade, that I still own. I sold some recently.

In a nushell, these were some of my best calls of 2013!

Bad Calls of Year 2013 – Boats that sank and rides that were missed!

AAPL

AAPL, Apple -

This was a failure of epic proportions. I failed to follow what I preach – Do Not Fall in Love With the Stocks you Own.  I saw the stock reach the pinnacle, and I saw it crumble. Theoretically I should have pulled the plug at $620.

 

WYNN

WYNN,  Wynn Resorts of Mr. Steve Wynn was cheap all throughout 2013. I bought ut but sold it at 200 MA, which is very disappointing.

 

wwww

WWWW, the Web.com Group – This is a textbook head and shoulder with breakout at $20.5. I bought it at $22 and sold it immediately.

 

URI

URI, United Rental. This is the kind of company that is a poster boy of a recovering economy. You see them from workers who fix the power lines to workers constructing homes. After closing following it for a year, I missed the bus.

Let’s usher in the new year by reviewing the returns of year 2013

Have anyone of you guys seen the Wolf of the Wall Street. Nice movie and nice year to realease it too. Just a fun fact for the market geeks and the movie buffs – 1997 was the year last roamed by the Wolf of the Wall Street, Jordan Belfort and 1997 was the last year when we saw a 30% returns.

One of my friends told me that he really doesnt want to let go of the year 2013. Yep, it’s been a phenomenal year. The $SPX, the reprsentative of the the broad market, gained 29.6%. as mentioned earlier, it was it’s best annual gain since 1997. Nasdaq gained 38% and the blue chips, Dow Jones Industrial Average, bagged 26.5%. We will discuss about the intricate details in the coming posts, some of which might spook you, some might startle you and some might make you rethink the 2014 invesment strategies.

So let’s delve into returns my portfolio generated. Following are the returns generated in real accounts, no paper money, Sire!

The account in interactivebrokers -

IBReturns2013

This account has companies such as Priceline (PCLN), Chipotle Mexican Gril (CMG), Apple (AAPL), Gilead Sciences (GILD), etc.

Following is the returns of account where I hold Micheal Kors (KORS), Celgene (CELG), Bank Of America (BAC), etc.

 TDReturns

Lastly, the returns from the 401K account which in addtions to the mututal funds such as FSCSX, has Facebook (FB), Continental Resources (CLR), Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), etc.

401KReturn

This is, in a nutshell, the returns I generated over last year.

Top Performing Stocks in Last 3 Months

Some of prime criteria used to filter these stocks are – the outstanding earnings growth (annually or quarterly) and revenue growth annually. I also restricted the price change to 35%.

The reason for filtering out this universe of stocks -

Next time when the market corrects some of these stocks will either buck the trend or bounce off the 50 DMA. The stocks that withstand the BEAR will go sideways with movement at least 1.5 times the market correction. I don’t need to explain the technicalities of 50 DMA bounce. So make a list of these stocks and wait for Mr. Market to take a breather.

TopStocksInLast3Mons_1

TopStocksInLast3Mons_2